Mariners first half takeaways and second half expectations

Published 1:30 am Friday, July 24, 2026

Following the All-Star break, the Seattle Mariners have a record of 48-49 and have pretty much fallen below every expectation. Here are three takeaways and expectations for the second half of the regular season as the push for a second consecutive American League West crown continues. The Mariners began the second half at home with a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants on July 17-19.

Pitching continues to do its thing

In the first half of the season, the Mariners sub .500 record seems like the worst reality the Mariners find themselves in. But in actuality, the pitching has been the one thing keeping the team a float.

In the month of June, the Mariners had their worst team ERA so far this year at 4.20. That ranked tied for 10th in terms of the entire league. In just the American league the 4.20 ERA in June was seventh. The Mariners are the only team in the top 10 in ERA that has a record under .500. The New York Mets (40-57) are the only other team in the top 14 to be under .500 and in the top 15 in ERA. The Mariners are seventh.

Bryce Miller has been sensational since his return from the injured list. Since making his debut on May 13 he has been the best Mariners starting pitcher. Miller has minuscule 2.16 ERA through his seven starts this season, second place in the rotation is Emerson Hancock (3.17) who we will get to in a minute. But Miller’s emergence is just the latest in the Mariners carousel of breakout seasons. What began as George Kirby’s dominance in his rookie season, transferred to Logan Gilbert the following year and Bryan Woo last season. Now it is Bryce Miller’s turn to be the ace of the staff.

The final first half surprise was Hancock becoming a nasty No. 5 in the rotation. His time in the big leagues had been questionable at best, since making his debut in 2023 he had never had an era lower than 4.50, which was what he had in his first three starts of his rookie season. But this year Hancock lowered his arm slot and has seen a tick up in velocity with the four season fastball. He has used that pitch more and is seeing the success, according to Baseball Savant his 4-seam fastball has a run value of 13, making it the ninth best pitch in baseball.

Veteran bats need to get going

It’s no secret it was going to be hard for Cal Raleigh to back up his 2025 MVP runner-up campaign in which he hit 60 home runs and helped put the Mariners one game away from their first world series appearance ever. But this season has turned to a nightmare following last season’s miracle run.

Raleigh statistically is having his worst season ever. Now he was hurt, having only played 65 of the 97 games the Mariners have played. But in those 65 games, Raleigh has struck out 91 times, the most on the active roster. His .271 on-base percentage, also the lowest on the team. He has to be a main cog in the wheel of the Mariner offense, a switch-hitting catcher has infinite value on a major league roster. But when Jhonny Pareda and Mitch Garver are more productive, questions start to develop.

Josh Naylor on the other hand has yet to reach his peak either. His best month was the month of May where he slashed .296/.350/.352, in every other month he has yet to breach the .270 mark at the dish. Last season, Naylor pre-all star break, there was just one month here he hit under .300.

His bat-to-ball skills are essential for this Mariners line up that does have a lot of strikeout. His 12.6% K rate is the lowest on the active roster, while there are four Mariner hitters who strike out at a rate at, or higher than 21%. In terms of slugging percentage, he is seventh on the active roster behind J.P. Crawford, Cole Young and Colt Emerson.

For a team that has so much swing and miss, Naylor’s role is an essential one. If the Mariners are going to go on a run, Naylor will more than likely be in the center of it because he is more than capable of it.

First half MVP’s

Not many could have predicted Young to get off to the start that he did, while those who have seen playoff Randy always knew he was capable of being a top-of-the-line bat. Julio Rodriguez and Arozarena were starting to click at the same time, but with Julio missing time due to a concussion recently but even his knee injury saw Randy step into the fold.

Arozarena didn’t suffer long from the World Baseball Classic lull, he hit .298 in April and .290 in May. June the average dripped to .261 but he was still reaching base at a .364 clip. His analytical numbers aren’t jumping off the page but he has developed into one of the most reliable bats this season. If not for Arozarena who currently leads the Mariners in WAR (Wins above replacement), the Mariners record would not be what it is.

His quality at the plate hasn’t been as celebrated as it should be due to his questionable hustle in the outfield and it specifically cost Luis Castillo a run as the very next pitch he gave up a home run in Tampa Bay on July 10.

Young arrived on the scene last year with a bang on a walk off fielder’s choice, his 2025 campaign was pretty pedestrian. But this year he brought the pop.

The 2022 first-round pick has 11 home runs compared to his four last season through 77 games. Young also played Gold Glove level defense at second base too as one of the best infielders in baseball his .990 fielding percentage is second among American League second basemen and seventh overall.

At the plate he had a tough month of May and so far in July where he hit under .200 in those two months. But in the other three he has hit over .275 with his best full month of baseball being June where he slashed .295/.333/.457 in 27 games. He is currently third in doubles with 14 and tied for fourth in home runs with 11.